Trade Desk Inc. (TTD)

[Der T]

Stock Market Nerd - Forrester Report B2B Advertising

 

“The Trade Desk is best for B2B advertisers and agencies with large audiences and sophisticated advertising needs.” -- Per the Forrester Report

[Der T]

Stock Market Nerd - The Trade Desk Q3 2022 Earnings Review

Zitat

Two things are true. First, this was a weaker quarter than The Trade Desk has reported in a while. And second, it was an impressive performance. Despite all of the aggressive macro headwinds raging on and intensifying, it continues to report a combination of growth, share gains and profit that is entirely unmatched in its space. It truly is outperforming all of its relevant comparisons. CTV + retail media give it two more exciting growth levers to pull, and considering how upbeat the forward commentary was on the call, it should be exciting to watch those areas play out. Great job again. It’s so easy to invest in Jeff Green.

 

[Tordal]

The Trade Desk jumps 16% on profit beat, $700M buyback program

 

 

Ich überlege, mich von meinen Anteilen mit nunmehr 10% Gewinn zu trennen in der Hoffnung später wieder günstiger einsteigen zu können. Habe damals wohl etws sehr teuer eingekauft :-)

Langfristig bin ich von TTD und Jeff Green sehr überzeugt, aber gerade im derzeitigen Umfeld könnte es auch wieder etwas bergab gehen. 

[Der T]

Stock Market Nerd - The Trade Desk (TTD) - Q4 2022 Earnings Review

 

Besonders lesenswert finde ich folgende Abschnitte:

• On winning despite Macro
  While peers cited a cautious ad market and issued underwhelming forward guidance, The Trade Desk encouragingly and convincingly bucked this theme.
• Unified ID 2.0 (UID2)
  The Trade Desk expects 75% of its gross spend to be UID2-tagged by Q2 2023 vs. 15% as of the end of 2021. Last quarter, the company guided to reaching 50% by Q4 2023.
  And per Green, that adoption will allow The Trade Desk to “effectively solve the identity-matching challenge for the entire open internet beyond anything cookies ever accomplished with more privacy and consumer control.”

• Streaming is Too Fragmented for Walled Garden Proliferation
  Streaming is not set up for walled gardens to thrive like search and social had been. Why? Nobody in streaming has monopoly or duopoly power. So? These more fragmented publishers have more incentive to play fair and plug their inventory into an aggregated bidding ecosystem to enjoy maximum impression prices.

• On a New Forward Market Product
  The Trade Desk will debut its new, “always-on” forward market product this year. Forward (AKA up-front) markets require advertisers to buy massive blocks of impressions once a year with little access to consumer data to guide pricing. Incredibly, up-front markets remain little changed since 1962 when they were created.

[Jlagreen]

The Trade Desk mit starken Zahlen, in einem schwierigen Marktumfeld. Das beweist eindeutig, dass TTD nicht direkt mit Google und Meta konkurriert, sondern vor allem im Open Internet und bei CTV aktiv ist. Letzteres hat Google zwar auch mit YT, aber da YT zu 100% Google selbst gehört, ist das nicht vergleichbar mit dem CTV Trend außerhalb YT. Denn abseits von YT nutzt vermutlich kaum jemand Google als DSP Plattform für CTV.

 

Wie dem auch sei, die Story ist weiterhin voll in Takt und Jeff Green ist einfach ein Visionär. Was er vor 5 Jahren schon vorhergesagt hat, entfaltet sich. Vor 5 Jahren hat mir jeder den Vogel gezeigt, als ich meinte, dass es eines Tages Werbung bei Netflix geben wird

 

6 Jahre bin ich nun investiert, ging schneller als gedacht vorbei. Noch weitere 15-20 Jahren und dann wird langsam abkassiert . Wobei mein Traum wäre, dass TTD irgendwann ein richtiger LargeCap mit Dividende wird, dann brauche ich meine Anteile gar nicht mehr verkaufen ^^

 

 

[Owl]

läuft

 

[Tordal]

läuft nicht mehr so gut

 

Obwohl die Zahlen nicht superschlecht waren, aber die Bewertung natürlich schon sehr sportlich. 

 

 

Jetzt kommt die Aktie mMn wieder in kaufenswerte Regionen, habe seit Monaten eine Limitorder bei 48 EUR und hätte nicht gedacht, dass es wieder realistisch würde, dass diese bedient werden könnte. 

Was sagt ihr dazu?

[Flaschenpfand]

Erinnert mich an Paycom (PAYC), das auch vor Kurzem 30% Prozent verloren hat.

Beide gehören für mich zur Kategorie von Unternehmen, die der Markt als gute

Investments ansieht, die aber auch hoch bewertet sind.

 

Jetzt wurde die hohe Bewertung ein Stück korrigiert. Ob es jetzt fair bewertet ist

oder einfach nur noch hoch statt sehr hoch, kann ich nicht beurteilen.

[Tordal]

Es ist echt schwer einzuschätzen, aber bei seekingalpha gib es nun natürlich die ersten sell-Empfehlungen:

Zitat

 

The Trade Desk faces a challenging landscape marked by competitive pressures and a valuation that appears disconnected from the realities of its growth outlook.

The recent negative surprise in growth rates brings to the fore concerns about its future performance. The premium attached to its stock, once justified by robust growth, now seems precarious as the market dynamics evolve.

Altogether, I don't believe TTD should be valued at 27x forward EBITDA when its peers are priced below 20x EBITDA. Particularly since it now appears that The Trade Desk isn't likely to grow higher than 20% to the low 20s% CAGR in 2024.

 

The Trade Desk Q3 Earnings: Uncertain Growth Trajectory (Rating Downgrade)

[Der T]

Fourth Quarter and 2023 Recent Business Highlights

• Continued Share Gains: 2023 gross spend of $9.6 billion.
   
• Strong Customer Retention: Customer retention remained over 95% during the year, as it has in each of the last ten years.
   
• Continued Collaboration and Support for Unified ID 2.0: The Trade Desk is building support for Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), an industry-wide approach to identity that preserves the value of relevant advertising, while putting user control and privacy at the forefront. UID2 is an upgrade and alternative to third-party cookies. Recent partnerships and pledges of integration and support include:
  • In January, DISH Media announced adoption of UID2 across its suite of traditional TV and OTT services including DISH TV and Sling TV.
  • With its integration of UID2, device and software company HP has seen improved targeting on CTV, and as a result, the company has reduced wasted advertising spend.
  • In September, Philo adopted UID2 across its roster of premium streaming TV channels.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery announced integration with UID2 across its premium entertainment, sports, news and lifestyle brands with its digital platforms, including Max and Discovery+.
  • Walmart Connect announced it is testing the integration of UID2 to inform decisioning across the open internet within the Walmart DSP.
  • EUID, the European counterpart to UID2 specifically developed for the European market, is gaining support across Europe from brands, publishers, and retailers. Initial industry engagement includes Bacardi, Kimberly-Clark, Aller Media, Future, OneFootball, Prisma Media, Tesco and others.
  • On stage at Forward ’23: Always On, NBCUniversal announced it is implementing UID2 on Peacock across all devices and consumer touchpoints, including on CTV, the web, apps and devices.
     
• OpenPath: OpenPath gives our clients a simplified, direct connection to participating premium publishers across the open internet. By supporting an objective, transparent supply path, OpenPath helps to maximize value for everyone involved. OpenPath is already live with dozens of publishers representing over 11,000 destinations across connected TV, mobile, display and audio.

Quelle: Trade Desk Investor Relations - Investor Presentation 2023 Q4

Quelle: Trade Desk Investor Relations - Press Release 2023 Q4 and Full Year 2023

 

 

Zitat

Take

Advertising is a very cyclical industry… you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at this firm’s results over the last two years. Fantastic quarter following some analysts warning investors about today’s guidance being bad. Instead, it was excellent.

Continued rapid compounding, market share gains and the gaudy margin profile are the byproducts of this titan continuing to lead in sector innovation. While last quarter was weaker than any it has delivered in years, that now appears to be a one-off anomaly. Back to business as usual for this special company. At the firm’s current multiple, its performance will need to remain perfect. There’s little margin of safety. But? There are also few teams that I’m more confident in delivering perfection than this one.

Quelle: Stock Market Nerd - Trade Desk Earnings Review

[Tordal]

Ein ebenso wahnsinnig gutes Unternehmen wie CRWD. Leider bin ich nicht mehr investiert und schau dem Kurs hinterher.