Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

[herbert_21]

Ehm...

 

Die Short Quote ist mit 3,64% unwesentlich, ich konnte bei Finviz zwei Analysten-Upgrades entdecken:

Man kann das Upgrade der Deutschen Bank bei Streetinsider nachlesen.

 

 

Die letzten Quartalszahlen vs. Erwartungen bei Seekingalpha:

 

Da ich mir nicht sicher war, ob das stimmt, hab ich noch mal bei Earnings Whispers nachgesehen. Dort heißt es:

Zitat

Dollar Tree (DLTR) reported 3rd Quarter October 2021 earnings of $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.95 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.06 per share. Revenue grew 3.9% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter earnings of $1.69 to $1.79 per share on revenue of $7.02 billion to $7.18 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.74 per share on revenue of $7.03 billion for the quarter ending January 31, 2022.

 

Weiter zum Transkript der Q3 Earnings vom 21.11.2021.

[herbert_21]

Neuer Price Point nicht mehr $1 sondern $1.25

Zitat

Turning to the $1.25 price point. Our leadership team has been planning for the expansion of this initiative since late summer. As you know, in September we announced our plans to add price points above $1 to all Dollar Tree Plus stores and on a test and learn basis to selected legacy Dollar Tree stores. As a result of the positive customer feedback and store performance during the initial phase, we have introduced the initiative to nearly 200 additional legacy Dollar Tree stores.

In today's press release, we announced for the first time in Dollar Tree's 35-year history we are lifting the $1 price point cap at all Dollar Tree stores on the majority of our assortment. The $1.25 price point enhances our ability to materially expand assortments, introduce new products and sizes and provide families with more of their daily essentials. We will have greater flexibility to continue providing incredible value and help customers get the everyday items they need and celebratory and seasonal products that Dollar Tree is best known for.

Additionally, we are now reintroducing many customer favorites and key traffic driving domestic and consumable products that Dollar Tree had previously discontinued due to the constraints of the $1 price point.

 

 

Bevor Fragen angenommen wurden, stellte man klar, dass man hierzu keine Fragen entgegen nehme:

[herbert_21]

Hier noch ein lesenswerter Artikel auf Seekingalpha

Being A Shareholder, I Accept That Dollar Tree Shows Significant Risks

von H Tianshan Oct. 19, 2021 Link im Archive

 

Warum ich den Artikel für lesenswert halte:

• er wurde vor dem Run-Up geschrieben
• er beinhaltet eine DCF und berechnet einen fairen Wert von $115
• er behandelt die Risiken

Zu den Risiken meint der Autor 

Zitat

In my opinion, investors will most likely realize that Dollar Tree's main issue is not the expansion of its sales, but a potential deterioration of its FCF margins. Future increases in wages, benefit costs, domestic freight costs, the cost of merchandise, and tariffs would significantly reduce the company's profitability. I need to highlight this risk because the management expects an increase in wage rates and shipping rates in the near future. Read the lines below for more information on the matter:

 

"We expect material increases in wage rates and labor costs as well as in shipping rates, freight, and fuel costs in 2021. Certain states and localities have passed laws to increase the minimum wage beginning in 2021 and are considering "hero pay", i.e., laws that would require increasing the pay of certain associates if we remain open when certain pandemic restrictions are implemented." Source: 10-k

 

The company's FCF margins would remain strong if the company can successfully import or transport merchandise. Investors will most likely not appreciate learning that the company is experiencing ocean shipping disruptions and trucking shortages. It is quite dangerous. If Dollar Tree, Inc. suffers significant disruptions, the management may not be able to sell a sufficient amount of merchandise. As a result, sales growth may not be that significant.

 

 

[herbert_21]

Eigenes Fazit zur Aktie

Ich denke, ich brauche nicht ausführen, warum ich Dollar Tree zum aktuellen Kurs nicht kaufen würde. Der Kurssprung ist einfach zu hoch, die Bewertung wird runter kommen.

[Toni]

Wozu sollte man DollarTree-Aktien kaufen wenn man DollarGeneral-Aktien kaufen kann?

DollarGeneral ist besser aufgestellt und die Aktie läuft sogar besser….

 

[herbert_21]

Eine schlagfertige Antwort von @Toni ... mehr wert als 1,25$ (pro Aktie)

 

Hier entlang: https://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/38699-dollar-general-dg/page/13/

 

 

[herbert_21]

Am 24.11.2021 um 11:45 von Toni:

Wozu sollte man DollarTree-Aktien kaufen wenn man DollarGeneral-Aktien kaufen kann?

DollarGeneral ist besser aufgestellt und die Aktie läuft sogar besser….

Nach dem "Downgrade" von @Toni jetzt ein Downgrade von Goldman Sachs, Aktie -2%

 

Goldman downgrades Dollar Tree to neutral, says company’s improvements are priced in (Schlagzeile auf CNBC Pro, Paywall)

[herbert_21]

Zitat

We may see higher interest rates in the not-too-distant future. How does that affect your thinking?

 

Neff: Rising interest rates, if they are consistent with inflation, will be a new investment regime. If we were to move into a higher interest rate, higher inflation environment, having high returns on tangible capital [assets like property and equipment]is going to be a very important consideration.

Our portfolio average had [in March] a 179% return on gross tangible capital, which is astronomically high. The businesses that we own don’t need a great deal of tangible capital to operate, and earn very high returns and high margins. The higher the returns on the tangible capital needed to support the sales and earnings of a business, the more efficiently and profitably a business can stay ahead of inflation.

 

Are you concerned about inflation?

Cerrone: We invest in “all-weather” businesses. That said, you can see [the impact] of wage inflation and higher energy prices on some retailers, like Dollar Tree [DLTR], which pays for a substantial amount of their products to be shipped from overseas.

Inflation has averaged 2.5% per year since Dollar Tree opened its first $1-only store in 1986. Against all odds, they have maintained the $1-only price point. They have some of the best margins in all of retail, helped by its purchasing scale, buying direct from suppliers overseas, and tight supply chain management. All of that gives us confidence they will navigate today’s inflationary challenges.

Akre Capital zu Dollar Tree im Interview mit Barron's am 23.7.2021

[herbert_21]

Dollar Tree verfehlt die Erwartungen:

 

 

Besonders schwer wiegen die verfehlten adjusted earnings aufs Jahr gesehen. Aktie heute -10%

[herbert_21]

Dollar Tree tightens outlook as theft hits inventory 

Yahoo Finance, 24.8.2023

 

Dollar Tree (DLTR) said Thursday it is taking steps to combat a growing problem across the retail space: shoplifting, or "shrink" as the industry calls it.

 

The value retailer's stock sank more than 10% on Thursday after posting a weaker-than-expected forecast and a decline in gross margins due a customer shift towards consumables and "elevated shrink."

 

"Unfortunately, the headwinds we're having in shrink are muting our margins right now," Dollar Tree CFO Jeff Davis told analysts during the earnings call on Thursday.

 

The company's gross margins of 29.2% in its latest quarter declined 220 basis points from the same period last year and were shy of consensus expectations for 29.7%.

 

Zitat

Dollar Tree's quarterly profit of $0.91 per share beat estimates for earnings per share of $0.87.

 

However, its third quarter earnings forecast fell shy of expectations, with the company expecting to earn $0.94-$1.09 per share in the current quarter, below the $1.29 Wall Street was expecting.

 

Revenue for the second quarter of $7.32 billion grew more than 8% compared to a year ago and came in above estimates of $7.21 billion.

 

An unfavorable sales mix as customers continue to spend more on lower-margin perishables is also impacting Dollar Tree's bottom line. "You see across the retail landscape, people are moving more into consumables and we're not immune to that," said Davis.

 

"We are now taking a very defensive approach to shrink," Rick Dreiling, CEO of Dollar Tree, said during the earnings call. "I do not see any trouble to getting to more realistic margin levels."

In response, the company plans to introduce anti-theft initiatives including moving certain items behind the checkout stand and removing some SKUs altogether.