KABEL DEUTSCHLAND GMBH ITV V.04(09/14)

[goofy77]

Hallo,

Ich bin über die Anleihe der Kabel Deutschland (WKN A0KP8Y) gestolpert. Die bringen momentan um die 10% Rendite und ich konnte den Haken an der Sache bisher nicht finden. Rating ist im B Bereich, Aktie hält sich stabil und es wurde letztes Jahr sogar ein Gewinn ausgewiesen.

Weis evtl jemand, wo hier der Haken ist? Ansonsten währe es ja eigentlich hoch interssant.

Mfg

Hier noch ein Paar Angaben zur Anleihe:

Fälligkeit: 01.07.2014

Zinssatz: 10,75%

Periode: 6 Monate

Stückelung: 1000

[otto03]

Hallo,

Ich bin über die Anleihe der Kabel Deutschland (WKN A0KP8Y) gestolpert. Die bringen momentan um die 10% Rendite und ich konnte den Haken an der Sache bisher nicht finden. Rating ist im B Bereich, Aktie hält sich stabil und es wurde letztes Jahr sogar ein Gewinn ausgewiesen.

Weis evtl jemand, wo hier der Haken ist? Ansonsten währe es ja eigentlich hoch interssant.

Mfg

 

das ist zwar nicht der Haken, aber hast Du 50k zur Anlage frei?

[Fleisch]

hallöle und willkommen,

 

schau mal hier rein

 

https://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/23867-richtlinien-zur-themeneroeffnung/

 

https://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/6385-grundwissen-uber-anleihen/

 

editier bitte noch deinen Beitrag, dann können wir den Thread auch so stehen lassen.

[cityboy]

hallöle und willkommen,

 

schau mal hier rein

 

http://www.wertpapie...emeneroeffnung/

 

http://www.wertpapie...-uber-anleihen/

 

editier bitte noch deinen Beitrag, dann können wir den Thread auch so stehen lassen.

 

 

KDG is going to do very well over the next 2 years as they increase triple play and expand docsis. i wld play down in the capital structure, that is the PIK, HY bonds (if willingness to be fixed coupon) or even the equity. JPM analysis is great for those w coverage.

[Stairway]

Are the PIKs listed ? - A0KP8Y looks quite overvalued against the background of an (in my opinion) DDD capital structure. There are bonds yielding roughly the same for lower risk. By the way: JPM analysis may be good, but bear in mind who actually pays them

[XYZ99]

Schadet auch nicht, den thread zur zugehörigen Aktie zu lesen.

[cityboy]

Are the PIKs listed ? - A0KP8Y looks quite overvalued against the background of an (in my opinion) DDD capital structure. There are bonds yielding roughly the same for lower risk. By the way: JPM analysis may be good, but bear in mind who actually pays them

 

PIK is not listed, private debt. not sure what a DDD cap structure is supposed to be mate (D maybe?). bonds yield roughly the same for 'lower risk' really is a too generic statement to comment on. the 'brokers get fees' arguement gets a bit old in my view, suggestion would be to check it out and judge for yourself, well worth a read in my view.

 

as to the equity analysis of KDG that was linked, pretty terrible and contained too many mistakes to point out here, clearly that person has never looked at a leveraged/HY investment, or how to value such a business (free cash flow vs book earnings etc). not saying one needs a crystal ball but should at least understand what the right metrics are to look at such a firm. if i find the time i will post my view there for them to critique.

 

my guess is providence, arguably the best media shop around, and kdg shareholders will make a lot of money on the equity with this as the business delevers off of FCF while growing its top line and expanding Ebtida margins. i wld be more concerned staying fixed on the HY bond (vs. PIK which is floating) in case interest rates start surging next year.

[fireball]

What the Fu..k where am I ? In the trash can ?

 

This Bond is the ICE on a cake for a Suizide Bomber .... Holy crap this clutter for 10% lol

[Stairway]

not sure what a DDD cap structure is [...]

 

An exaggeration

 

bonds yield roughly the same for 'lower risk' really is a too generic statement to comment on.

 

Such as those: 804294 & 804290.

 

the 'brokers get fees' arguement gets a bit old in my view, [...]

 

Sure, times have changed and all those analysts are working totally independent. Oh, look at this, JPM was Joint Bookrunner. (As I said, the analysis can be worth reading; could you send it via PN or upload it?)

 

as to the equity analysis of KDG that was linked, pretty terrible and contained too many mistakes to point out here, clearly that person has never looked at a leveraged/HY investment, or how to value such a business (free cash flow vs book earnings etc). not saying one needs a crystal ball but should at least understand what the right metrics are to look at such a firm. if i find the time i will post my view there for them to critique.

 

Could be true that KDG achieves the turnaround, nevertheless no stock is worth an infinite price; and KDG's share price just looks like that.

[cityboy]

What the Fu..k where am I ? In the trash can ?

 

This Bond is the ICE on a cake for a Suizide Bomber .... Holy crap this clutter for 10% lol

 

@ fireball: be interesting whether you actually have an argument based on any finance fundamentals, know anything about the HY market, or whether you just felt like typing on a keyboard. my guess is the latter so i wont waste my time.

 

@stairway: as to an equity value, the right way to look at the equity for a leveraged company is not P/S or anything like that. it is EV/Ebitda and how the company will delever via FCF over the next 3 years, you can then take a view on an appropriate Ebtida multiple at that stage based on future growth/franchise/etc and deduct net debt which give you an idea of the equity value for the business. this is a gross oversimplification but in general common for businesses that can sustain high level of debt, and that is the reason the equity thred is missing the point of an appropriate analysis entirely.

 

 

 

 

[fireball]

Remember that when you be still in one's swaddling i Invest in HY so watch your Words some explosive when dry.

 

You Know some Bonds are priced faire some Not....

 

So and now the citygrandfather go to bed ....

[cityboy]

Remember that when you be still in one's swaddling i Invest in HY so watch your Words some explosive when dry.

 

You Know some Bonds are priced faire some Not....

 

So and now the citygrandfather go to bed ....

 

how do you guys feel about your stellar analysis of kdg now..

[John Silver]

Remember that when you be still in one's swaddling i Invest in HY so watch your Words some explosive when dry.

 

You Know some Bonds are priced faire some Not....

 

So and now the citygrandfather go to bed ....

 

how do you guys feel about your stellar analysis of kdg now..

My opinion:

In the northern territory of germany we say: With every train comes an id***, you just have to find him!

I think Kabel Deutschland has found a bonanza of Idiots.