Ukraine-Anleihen, z. B. 4,95% Ukraine EO-Notes 2005(15)

[BondWurzel]

Bisher hat die Ukraine ja alles schön brav bezahlt, sogar den 16% der nicht getauscht worden war. ....

 

falsch, die 16er wurde in den 10er getauscht, die Zinsen für die 16er gab es nachträglich aber noch, wenn ich mich nicht irre.

 

http://www.finanzen.net/eurams/bericht/Ukraine_Anleihen_noch_zu_riskant_6427

 

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/450092-41-50/ausfall-von-staatsanleihen

[Superhirn]

Bisher hat die Ukraine ja alles schön brav bezahlt, sogar den 16% der nicht getauscht worden war. ....

 

falsch, die 16er wurde in den 10er getauscht, die Zinsen für die 16er gab es nachträglich aber noch, wenn ich mich nicht irre.

 

http://www.finanzen.net/eurams/bericht/Ukraine_Anleihen_noch_zu_riskant_6427

 

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/450092-41-50/ausfall-von-staatsanleihen

 

Du wirst lachen, aber 50 Mio nominal wurden nicht getauscht. Als diese eingereicht wurden hat die Ukraine gezahlt ohne zu zögern. Das wurde damals aus guten Gründen nicht übermässig publik gemacht.

[BondWurzel]

Bisher hat die Ukraine ja alles schön brav bezahlt, sogar den 16% der nicht getauscht worden war. ....

 

falsch, die 16er wurde in den 10er getauscht, die Zinsen für die 16er gab es nachträglich aber noch, wenn ich mich nicht irre.

 

http://www.finanzen.net/eurams/bericht/Ukraine_Anleihen_noch_zu_riskant_6427

 

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/450092-41-50/ausfall-von-staatsanleihen

 

Du wirst lachen, aber 50 Mio nominal wurden nicht getauscht. Als diese eingereicht wurden hat die Ukraine gezahlt ohne zu zögern. Das wurde damals aus guten Gründen nicht übermässig publik gemacht.

 

Ja, so einen kleinen Rest konnte man sich wohl verkneifen...

[Superhirn]

In der Tat.

 

Da die neue aber mit 10% Nominalzins ausgestattet war, war das Geschrei der Tauscher, da sie die Bedienung der Altanleihe überhaupt nicht mitbekommen haben, nicht vorhanden.

[BondWurzel]

Ukraine Plans $1.3Bln Eurobond

27 April 2010

Reuters

 

Ukraine plans to issue a $1.3 billion eurobond in 2010 its first since the global economic crisis to plug an anticipated budget deficit and repay accumulated debt, government figures showed on Monday.

 

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov's government also foresaw drawing on $2 billion of credit from an International Monetary Fund program and $500 million from the World Bank during the year, the figures showed.

 

Separately, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said it was ready to give the country more than 1 billion euros in loans and investments this year, almost the same volume as in 2009.

 

EBRD President Thomas Mirow told a news conference that the terms for issuing would depend on how quickly Ukrainian authorities agreed to conditions.

 

Ukraine's new leadership is expecting word soon on a sought-for $12 billion credit package over 2 1/2 years from the IMF to turn around a hard-pressed economy whose main export markets were savaged by the financial downturn.

 

Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Tigipko, Ukraine's point man on negotiations with the IMF, was quoted by the government press service on Monday as saying in Washington that Kiev might receive $19 billion to $20 billion from the fund.

 

Before leaving for Washington on April 20, he said Ukraine was seeking $12 billion in credit and the government press service gave no explanation for the difference between the two figures.

 

To meet IMF demands, it has put together a draft budget for 2010, which it hopes will be approved by the parliament this week.

 

The government figures, in a document that outlined expected borrowing under the 2010 budget, gave no yield for the planned eurobond nor say which banks had been chosen to lead the issue.

 

The last time the Ukrainian Finance Ministry went on to the bond market was in 2007, when it issued five-year bonds for $500 million with a 6.385 percent coupon.

 

In 2008, after a road show with an indicative volume of several hundred million dollars, the government backed off going to the market when it saw how high the price would be.

 

A week ago, however, the state-run Ukreximbank issued a five-year eurobond for $500 million with a coupon of 8.375 percent.

 

The government figures showed that Ukraine was faced with paying out 27.227 billion hryvna ($3.403 billion) to domestic creditors this year the result of accumulated short-term and medium-term securities now maturing.

 

They showed Ukraine's foreign debt coming due this year to be 10.772 billion hryvna ($1.346 billion).

 

The Ukrainian government has made a commitment to the IMF to try to hold its budget deficit to 6 percent of gross domestic product.

 

The figures showed that the government aimed to hold the hryvna at 8 per dollar during the year. It intended to issue T-bills over the year totaling 66.190 billion hryvna, 47.853 billion hryvna of which would go to covering the deficit.

 

The government finalized its draft budget last week only after Ukraine had agreed on a new price for its huge supplies of gas from Russia.

[modiano]

Ich habe eine Frage an die erfahrenen Anleger hier: Nehmen wir mal gerade die in diesem Thread vorgestellte Ukraine Anleihe als Beispiel. Wie geht ihr nun genau vor um festzulegen ob sich ein Kauf lohnt oder nicht? Welche Zahlen zieht ihr in Betracht?

[BondWurzel]

Ich habe eine Frage an die erfahrenen Anleger hier: Nehmen wir mal gerade die in diesem Thread vorgestellte Ukraine Anleihe als Beispiel. Wie geht ihr nun genau vor um festzulegen ob sich ein Kauf lohnt oder nicht? Welche Zahlen zieht ihr in Betracht?

 

Ich analysiere die ökonischen Daten + Hilfe seitens IWF und Entwicklungsbank.

 

Hab heute noch nachgekauft wegen der leicht schwächeren Briefkurse.

 

iwf News

[modiano]

Woher beziehst du solche Daten, gibts da im Internet überhaupt vernünftige Quellen?

Wie hoch schätzt ihr bei der Ukraine Anleihe das Ausfallrisiko ein?

 

Die Auszahlungen des Kupons gibts ja in der Regel immer bar, sehe ich das richtig?

[BondWurzel]

Woher beziehst du solche Daten, gibts da im Internet überhaupt vernünftige Quellen?

Wie hoch schätzt ihr bei der Ukraine Anleihe das Ausfallrisiko ein?

 

Die Auszahlungen des Kupons gibts ja in der Regel immer bar, sehe ich das richtig?

 

Zinsen werden immer cash ausgezahlt bei normalen Anleihen - ausser Zerobonds -.

 

Es gibt viele Infoquellen:

 

http://www.reuters.com/search?blob=Ukraine

 

http://www.ukraine.org/links.html

 

http://www.investukraine.org/

 

http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/

 

Ich hab mich auch beim IWF registriert und erhalte automatisch Infos per EMail. Dann Ratingagenturen.

[modiano]

Gibt es empfehlendswerte Bücher über Anleihen? (am besten für Anfänger). Darf auch auf Englisch sein.

Ratingagenturen hast du als letztes genannt, kann man dann auch davon ausgehen dass sie weniger wichtig sind?

[molari]

@ Modiano,

 

wie wäre es wenn du den Thread zur Ukraine Anleihe auch dieser Anleihe und den Posts dazu überlässt. Fragen allgemeiner Art die speziell an Bondwurzel gerichtet sind könntest du auch per PN klären, um die Übersichtlichkeit in den Threads zu wahren. Also dann viel erfolg bei der Suche.

 

Grüße

Molari

 

EDIT: Naja oder er hat schon geantwortet^^.

[BondWurzel]

Gibt es empfehlendswerte Bücher über Anleihen? (am besten für Anfänger). Darf auch auf Englisch sein.

Ratingagenturen hast du als letztes genannt, kann man dann auch davon ausgehen dass sie weniger wichtig sind?

 

Agenturen reagieren oft zu spät..also, wem nützt das was.

 

Bücher kenne ich keine guten.

 

Wichtig: Staatsanleihen sind imho anders zu bewerten als normale Unternehmensanleihen.

 

Allgemeines wird auch hier gut beschrieben:

 

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verzinsliches_Wertpapier

 

 

http://www.investmentsparen.net/anleihen.html

[BondWurzel]

IMF Announces Staff Level Agreement with Ukraine on US$14.9 Billion Stand-By Arrangement

Press Release No 10/281

July 3, 2010

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Kyiv during June 21-July 3, to discuss economic policies that could be supported by a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF. At the conclusion of the visit, Thanos Arvanitis, Mission Chief for Ukraine, issued the following statement today in Kyiv:

 

The mission has reached a staff-level agreement with the authorities of Ukraine on an economic policy program that can be supported by a 2½ year Stand-By Arrangement in the amount equivalent to SDR 10 billion (US$14.9 billion). The agreement reached with the authorities is subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board. Consideration by the Executive Board is expected in late July, following approval of legislative changes relating to the budget and financial sector.

 

The goal of the authorities economic program is to entrench fiscal and financial stability, advance structural reforms, and put Ukraine on a path of sustainable and balanced growth. Policies under the program include fiscal adjustment to contain the 2010 consolidated general government deficit to 5½ percent of GDP in 2010 and 3½ percent in 2011 with a view to setting public debt firmly on a declining path. The fiscal adjustment is to be achieved by tax and social security structural reforms, expenditure rationalization combined with efforts to improve tax administration. Additional resources are allocated in the budget to protect the poorest segment of the population.

 

Financial sector reforms are focused on restoring the health of the banking system, including by ensuring an adequate level of capitalization and strengthening the independence of the National Bank of Ukraine.

 

Energy sector reforms will help to strengthen the gas sector and improve Naftogazs financial position, limiting its deficit to 1 percent of GDP in 2010 and balancing its finances in 2011, while, at the same time, protecting the most vulnerable people. Legislative reforms will be aimed at modernizing the economy and improving business environment, to restore robust economic growth over the coming years.

[Torman]

Hier das Kontrastprogramm. Bei der Ukraine muss man wirklich immer mit allem rechnen. Die Sache wird hoffentlich ohne Haircut ablaufen.

 

The City of Kiev wants to restructure the principal on 2011 and 2012 Eurobonds, a person in the Kiev city administration who is familiar with the plan said today inthe capital city.

The restructuring plan would get final approval by mid-September, the person said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/kiev-city-wants-to-restructure-2011-2012-eurobonds-person-familiar-says.html

[BondWurzel]

Hier das Kontrastprogramm. Bei der Ukraine muss man wirklich immer mit allem rechnen. Die Sache wird hoffentlich ohne Haircut ablaufen.

 

The City of Kiev wants to restructure the principal on 2011 and 2012 Eurobonds, a person in the Kiev city administration who is familiar with the plan said today inthe capital city.

The restructuring plan would get final approval by mid-September, the person said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/kiev-city-wants-to-restructure-2011-2012-eurobonds-person-familiar-says.html

 

Man wird Kiew ohne Haircut helfen.....

 

die Ukraine15 jetzt wegen positivem Umfeld schon im Geld über 90...damit ist meine Rechnung voll aufgegangen und man darf sich nach kanpp über einem Jahr über einen Kursanstieg von knapp über 30% auf jetzt 90,05% ( + 200% ) Geld freuen, ich warte noch was mit Verkauf...soll noch einer sagen, mit Bonds kann man kein Geld verdienen.. ...

 

https://www.comdirect.de/inf/anleihen/detail/uebersicht.html?ID_NOTATION=13053551

Ukraine Abandons First Eurobond Since 2007 as Yield Tops 9%

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-16/ukraine-abandons-first-eurobond-since-2007-as-yield-tops-9-.html

[BondWurzel]

Alles top-fit...15er Richtung Mitte 90 unterwegs...

 

Ukraine plans to sign loan agreement with Russia on KhAPP by year's end

 

KYIV, August 5 /UKRINFORM/. Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Boiko plans to sign a loan agreement with the Russian Federation for the construction of III and IV reactors at Khmelnitsky atomic power plant (KhAPP) by the end of 2010, Boiko's deputy Natalia Shumkova told reporters.

 

"We are still at the stage of interaction between the ministries of finance of Ukraine and Russia to determine the format of such agreement: whether it is a commercial loan, a loan from the National Bank, or the budget funds of Russia. We set a goal that the loan agreement must be signed before the end of the year, but there is another side: for today the Russian side has not provided us with information about the format of the loan," she said adding that the basic terms of the loan agreement are not yet defined.

 

NNEGC Energoatom anticipates the completion and commissioning of KhAPP's III and IV power generating units until 2018. According to Energoatom president Yuriy Nedashkovsky, "the third power unit of KhAPP can be put into operation in 2016, the fourth - in 2017".

[BondWurzel]

Der Bond ist auch, wie von mir erwartet, super gelaufen, die Lage stabilisiert sich weiter.

 

https://kunde.comdirect.de/inf/anleihen/detail/uebersicht.html?ID_NOTATION=13053551

 

Ukraine's GDP grows 6% in second quarter

English.news.cn 2010-08-17 08:21:56

 

KIEV, Aug. 16 (Xinhua) -- Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6 percent in the second quarter of 2010 from a year earlier, the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine said in a report on Monday.

 

According to the report, Ukraine's economy grew 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter, taking into account seasonal factors.

 

The state statistics committee didn't specify any other data, in particular the dynamics of year-on-year GDP growth in the first half of 2010 and the nominal GDP.

 

Earlier, Ukraine's Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said that Ukraine's GDP in the first half of 2010 had grown by 6.3 percent.

 

The Ukrainian government forecast the country's GDP in 2010 will rise 3.7 percent after a 15.1 percent decline in 2009.

 

The International Monetary Fund in late July said it expected Ukraine's GDP to grow by 3.7 percent in 2010, and by 4.3 percent in 2011.

[BondWurzel]

FAZ:

Eine Phase des Zitterns dagegen endet für die Ukraine. Das Land hat am Freitag Anleihen im Wert von 2 Milliarden Dollar plaziert. Es war der erste Marktauftritt der Ukraine seit November 2007. Zwischenzeitlich benötigte das Land Kredithilfen vom Internationalen Währungsfonds, weil sie keinen Zugang mehr zum Kapitalmarkt fand. Doch nun haben die Anleger so viel Vertrauen, dass sie Kupons akzeptierten, die niedriger sind als die Griechenlands. Die Ukraine brachte ihre Anleihen für fünf Jahre zu einem Kupon von 6,9 Prozent unter und für zehn Jahre zu einem von 7,8 Prozent. Griechenland dagegen müsste in beiden Laufzeiten mehr als 11 Prozent bieten.

 

Sag ich doch...angefangen bei 32% einzusammeln und jetzt bei über 90% alle verkauft....jetzt schau ich mir die neue Anleihe an.

[BondWurzel]

Industrial production in Ukraine up 10.8% in nine months

 

KYIV, October 16 /UKRINFORM/. Industrial production in Ukraine in January-September 2010 rose by 10.8% compared to the same period in 2009, the State Statistics Committee has reported.

 

In September 2010 compared to September 2009, industrial production grew by 10.2%, and compared to August 2010 it rose by 2.9%.

 

The production and distribution of electricity, gas and water in the first nine months of 2010 rose by 10.7%. At the same time, growth in the country's processing industry over the period amounted to 13%, and in the mining industry to 10.8%.

[BondWurzel]

Ukraine economy rebounds after dizzying fall

 

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) -- Last year, the Ukrainian economy nearly collapsed in the global financial crisis as steel plants stopped production and construction cranes froze. Angry Ukrainians lined up to empty their bank accounts and Kiev restaurants idled without customers.

 

Today the capital's diners are crowded again as the country's economy bounces back strongly, largely on demand for its steel from the global recovery.

 

But experts are warning Ukraine remains far too dependent on exports and the world economy. If demand for steel falls, they say, the country could face another free fall.

 

Ukraine is expected to become the second-fastest growing economy among emerging markets in 2011, trailing oil-rich Kazakhstan, according to Dragon Capital investment bank in Kiev. Experts say Ukraine is growing faster than others simply because it was one of the worst affected by the global financial crisis and the growth is fueled mostly by rising prices for metals, its main export.

 

"The Ukrainian economy is highly exposed to global commodity cycles," said Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, a leading investment company in Ukraine. It "contracted sharply and now is recovering faster than regional peers."

 

And commodities, including metals, are up strongly worldwide, due to factors including strong demand in emerging economies such as China. Low interest rates and loose monetary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks also play a role, as investors pour easily available cash into commodities in search of higher yields.

 

Gross domestic product is expected to grow 4.3 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2011 after plummeting 15 percent in 2009, according to Dragon. France, by comparison, will grow a modest 1.6 percent this year, after contracting 2.6 percent in 2009.

 

The growth is also spurred by political stability brought by the election of Kremlin-friendly President Viktor Yanukovuch, which ended years of government paralysis due to fighting between former President Viktor Yuschchenko and then-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The country's finances were stabilized by a hefty $15 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund.

 

Restaurants in Kiev are snapping back to life as Ukrainians can afford to eat out more. Shokoladnitsa, a coffee shop chain, opened a 10th cafe in Kiev this year and introduced sushi to its menu as sales grew 10 percent and the number of customers went up 5 to 7 percent compared to last year, when sales contracted 30 percent.

 

Some Ukrainians are feeling the change. Some aren't.

 

Valery Ilyin was afraid he would lose his $110,000 three-room apartment in southwestern Kiev when his dollar mortgage doubled after the hryvna lost 50 percent of its value at the end of 2008, falling from 5 to 10 hryvna against the dollar. The currency has now stabilized at 8 hryvna to the dollar and he hopes to pay out the loan in five years.

 

"I think about my future plans in a positive way now," said Ilyin, who is married and has two daughters and a son. "When there is some kind of stability, things look hopeful."

 

But the recovery hasn't reached many.

 

Yaroslava Stalchuk, a 72-year-old retired accountant, spends most of her 1,000 hryvna ($125 or euro 90) monthly pension on kidney medication and sells cigarettes for 25 hryvna ($3 or euro2 euro) a pack in downtown Kiev to feed herself. "Whatever I earn here is my dinner and I cannot afford much" said Stalchuk, adding that she usually eats buckwheat porridge, cottage cheese, milk and bread after food prices more than doubled in the past couple of years.

 

Encouraged by higher salaries, a strengthened hryvna and political stability, more fortunate consumers are back at department stores, snapping up vacuum cleaners, cell phones and pricier groceries. Retail sales were up 5.2 percent in the first nine months of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, Dragon Capital said. The retail sector contracted by 20.7 percent in 2009.

 

Kviza Trade, which operates a chain of 47 grocery stores across the country, reported a 24 percent rise in sales in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period last year.

 

The banking sector is healing from a run on banks when jittery consumers rushed to withdraw their hryvna savings and convert the Ukrainian currency into dollars to be stashed under their mattresses. Bank deposits grew 26 percent, and corporate and private lending showed a minuscule 0.4 percent growth as of October, year on year, according to Dragon.

 

Alfa Bank Ukraine has resumed consumer lending, such as cars loans, checking account overdrafts and cash loans of up to 150,000 hryvna ($18,750 or euro13,800). The bank said customers are regaining confidence in the banking sector and an average bank deposit is held nine months as opposed to one to three months last year.

 

Inflation reached 15.9 percent last year and is expected to slow to 13 percent this year and to 11 percent in 2011, according to Renaissance Capital.

 

To sustain growth in the long run, experts say, Ukraine must get down to serious reform and develop domestic industries and services. Currently, exports constitute 50 percent of the Ukrainian economy, and more than half of that is hard commodities, mainly steel.

 

"Ukraine is metals," said Timothy Ash, London-based head of emerging market research at Royal Bank of Scotland. "Ukraine would suffer as metals prices fall."

 

Ukraine ranks 145th out of 183 countries, on par with countries like Cambodia, in a World Bank group study on the ease of doing business due to excessive red tape, which fuels corruption. The authors urged the Ukrainian authorities to ease licensing regulations, make it easier to connect new offices to the electricity grid, reform the tax system and adopt a bankruptcy law.

 

Anastasia Golovach, an economist with Renaissance Capital, said that Yanukovych should use his broad political power to push through unpopular reforms. She called for a land reform that would help develop the agricultural and food industries by allowing foreign ownership and long-term leases of agricultural land.

 

Cutting subsidies to households for heating and hot water would free up money to renovate the aging pipelines that carry Russian natural gas to Europe, she said.

 

Developing tourism is crucial in Ukraine, especially ahead of the 2012 European football championship, which Ukraine is hosting together with Poland, Golovach said.

[Karl Napf]

Ukraine Rating Cut by Moody's as IMF Agrees to Delay Trip (By Daryna Krasnolutska & Ye Xie - 2012-12-06)

Ukraine's credit rating was lowered by Moody's Investors Service as the International Monetary Fund delayed a trip for talks on a third bailout in five years at the former Soviet republic's request. Moody's last night cut its rating one step to B3, six levels below investment grade, citing dim economic prospects. Moody's, whose downgrade left Ukraine's rating on a par with Argentina, Jamaica and Belarus, retained its negative outlook, an indication further cuts are possible.

 

"The primary driver underlying Moody's one-notch downgrade of Ukraine's government bond ratings is the rating agency's assessment of a deterioration in the country's institutional strength, against the backdrop of poor policy predictability as well as reduced data transparency," Moody's analysts said yesterday in a statement.

 

Ukraine is rated B+ by Standard & Poor's and B by Fitch Ratings, four and five levels short of investment grade, respectively.

 

HSBC Holdings Plc and Erste Bank Group AG predict Ukraine's economy will contract in the second half because of lower prices for metals, the country's biggest export earner. Gross domestic product may advance by 1 percent for the year as a whole, according to the government.

 

Ukraine, which neighbors Russia to its east, is seeking IMF aid to meet $10 billion of debt payments due in 2013 and help stabilize an

economy that shrank 1.3 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter. "There's a combination of news that suggests Ukraine is becoming more receptive to the idea it needs to go back to the IMF," Ivan Tchakarov, chief Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said today by phone. "The downgrade will also make Ukraine's life more difficult and makes an IMF program more likely."

Gemessen an dieser Situation ist der A0GGXG (4,95% Ukraine 15.10.2015) nach immerhin +16% Kursgewinn in diesem Kalenderjahr mit derzeit 95% = 6,7% Rendite stattlich bewertet, wenn man ihn mit diversen Tier-Anleihen vergleicht.

[BondWurzel]

für alle Schrottliebhaber, ein Bond der schon oft gute Gewinne gebracht hat und jetzt wieder bei 12% p.a.liegt... :-

 

Ukraine verausgabt innerhalb von zwei Jahren 40 Prozent der Gold- und Devisenreserven

[Superhirn]

für alle Schrottliebhaber, ein Bond der schon oft gute Gewinne gebracht hat und jetzt wieder bei 12% p.a.liegt... :-

 

Ukraine verausgabt innerhalb von zwei Jahren 40 Prozent der Gold- und Devisenreserven

 

 

 

"Im September hatte die Ratingagentur Moody’s beschlossen, das Rating der Ukraine auf das Caal-Niveau herabzusetzen"

Tja, was meint der Fachmann?

[BondWurzel]

für alle Schrottliebhaber, ein Bond der schon oft gute Gewinne gebracht hat und jetzt wieder bei 12% p.a.liegt... :-

 

Ukraine verausgabt innerhalb von zwei Jahren 40 Prozent der Gold- und Devisenreserven

 

 

 

"Im September hatte die Ratingagentur Moody’s beschlossen, das Rating der Ukraine auf das Caal-Niveau herabzusetzen"

Tja, was meint der Fachmann?

es juckt.... B)

[John Silver]

...

es juckt.... B)

 

Aufgrund von Kindersicherung juckt es bei mir noch nicht genug.