Venezuela, Boliv. Republik EO-NOTES 2001(11)

[Andreas R.]

Wer so aufrüsten kann, der kann auch Zinsen zahlen... :-

 

Ich glaube, am "können" zweifelt keiner. Eher am "wollen"... aber bis jetzt ist ja nichts passiert. :-

[Akaman]

Ich glaube, am "können" zweifelt keiner. Eher am "wollen"...

 

(jedenfalls mittel- und längerfristig)

[Fleisch]

damit steigen die Möglichkeiten zu weiteren (gewaltsamen) Enteignungen im Land im Rahmen seines sozialistischen Politik

[Prospektständer]

damit steigen die Möglichkeiten zu weiteren (gewaltsamen) Enteignungen im Land im Rahmen seines sozialistischen Politik

Alles wichtige ist da doch schon längst verstaatlicht. PDVSA, staatliche Fluglinie CONVIASA, 2008 die Zementindustrie, inklusive venezuelanische Tochterfirmen der Holcim, Cemex und Lafarge...

[Fleisch]

Energie, Telekommunikation, Einzelhandel, Rohstoffe, Technologie

 

es gibt noch genug. Der Staatshaushalt ächzst bereits seit einigen Jahren unter der Last der Verstaatlichungen. Der Erdöl- und Gaskonzern fördert seit seiner Verstaatlichung und zu hoher Pflichtabgaben an den Staatshaushalt zur Finanzierung der sozialistischen Revolution bereits gut 10 % weniger p.a. wenn ich mich noch richtig erinnere. Hinzu kommt ein Investitionsstau von mehreren Mrd. USD, wobei darin bereits die Erschließung neuer Erdöl- und Gasvorkommen mit eingerechnet ist.

 

Der Staatshaushalt, der früher einigermaßen solide war ist heute so stark von den in der Zwischenzeit verstaatlichten Unternehmen abhängig, dass einer Studie nach, über die neulich mal berichtet wurde, eine Nachfolgeregierung dies wohl nur unter größtmöglichen Problemen zurückdrehen könne.

 

Geld bekommt der Irre von mir folglich nicht. Ich will mich wenigstens darauf verlassen können, dass jemand wirklcih pleite ist und nicht mehr zahlt als auf jemanden, der zahlen könnte, abern icht will.

[BondWurzel]

Geld bekommt der Irre von mir folglich nicht. Ich will mich wenigstens darauf verlassen können, dass jemand wirklcih pleite ist und nicht mehr zahlt als auf jemanden, der zahlen könnte, abern icht will.

 

Glaubst du allen Ernstes, die Anderen, denen du dein Geld gibst, wären weniger irre? :'(

[BondWurzel]

Repsol: Gasfeld in Venezuela ist geschätzte 30% größer als gedacht

12.04.2010 | 12:35

 

Das vom spanischen Ölkonzern Repsol in Venezuela entdeckte Gasvorkommen Perla ist offensichtlich 30% größer als zunächst angenommen.

 

Zu der Einschätzung ist das Unternehmen aus Madrid nach einer Erkundungsbohrung gekommen, wie die Repsol YPF SA am Montag mitteilte. Demnach hält Perla rund 1,6 Mrd bis 1,85 Mrd Barrel Öläquivalent bereit.

 

Autor: Dow Jones Newswire

[vanity]

12.04.2010 | 12:35

Das vom spanischen Ölkonzern Repsol in Venezuela entdeckte Gasvorkommen Perla ist offensichtlich 30% größer als zunächst angenommen. Zu der Einschätzung ist das Unternehmen aus Madrid nach einer Erkundungsbohrung gekommen, wie die Repsol YPF SA am Montag mitteilte. Demnach hält Perla rund 1,6 Mrd bis 1,85 Mrd Barrel läquivalent bereit.

Da ist die Entscheidung doch klar:

 

Anleihen in Rapsöl

 

(bisher im Forum totgeschwiegen)

[BondWurzel]

Die Story in den Venebonds ist jetzt weitgehends gelaufen...es gibt noch leicht ansprechende Renditen als Lückenfüller:

:

 

https://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main.html?sTab=overview&sSym=XS0214851874.STU

 

19.04.2010 08:19

Venezuela erhält aus China 20 Mrd.US$ Energie-Kredit

EMFIS.COM - Caracas 19.04.2010 (www.emfis.com) Am vergangenen Sonnabend haben Venezuela und China Vereinbahrungen über Strom- und Ölprojekte geschlossen. Diese Vereinbahrungen beinhalten die Bereitstellung von 20 Mrd. US Dollar durch China.

Ursprünglich wollte Chinas Präsident Hu Jintao an der Unterzeichnung in der venezolanischen Hauptstadt Caracas anwesend sein, brach aber seine Lateinamerikareise wegen des Erdbebens zu Hause ab.

Wie die chinesische Nachritenagentur Xinhua schreibt, handelt es sich um insgesamt sechs ernergiebezogene Projekte. Weitere Details sind nicht bekannt. Die so genannten " soft Kredite " werden durch die China Development Bank bereitgestellt, so Xinhua.

Diese Vereinbahrung läuft parallel zu einem bestehenden chinesisch- venezolanischen Investitionsfonds, welcher mit 12 Mrd. US Dollar ausgestattet ist.

Für China gehört dieses Engagement in einer Reihe mit bereits getroffenen Vereinbahrungen zur Sicherung des eigenen Energiebedarfs. Erst vor kurzem wurden Mrd.- schwere Verträge mit anderen Ländern, wie Russland oder Kasachstan, geschlossen.

Im vergangenen Jahr kündigte China einen 10 Mrd. US Dollar schweren Öl- Kredit für Brasilien an, um dort das Offshore- Geschäft voranzutreiben.

In Brasilien, wie auch in Venezulea, sind es die staatlichen Ölgesellschaften Petroleo Brasileiro und Petroleos de Venezuela, die die Ölvorkommen beherrschen. Zu diesen Unternehmen pflegt China enge Kontakte.

Da sich die globalen Ölkonzerne Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell und BP auf Druck der Chavez Regierung zurückzogen, ist China nun ein äußerst willkommener und vor allem potenter Partner.

 

[BondWurzel]

Venezuela Plans Biggest Dollar Debt Auction to Boost Bolivar

April 28, 2010, 2:08 PM EDT

 

 

By Daniel Cancel

 

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelas central bank is preparing its biggest sale of dollar debt this year in a bid to arrest a tumble in the bolivar that sent it to a record low.

 

The central bank, which has sold about $457 million of dollar bonds in local market this year, said today it will auction $20 million of 90-day notes to individual investors and $50 million of the securities to companies. The bonds are payable in bolivars.

 

The supply is insufficient, Russell Dallen, head trader at Caracas Capital Markets at BBO Financial Services Inc. in Miami said. Theyre only selling $50 million to $60 million a week. We trade that much in one day.

 

The bolivar slid 2.9 percent in the parallel market today to 7.65 per dollar, the weakest level since President Hugo Chavez imposed currency controls in 2003, from 7.43 yesterday, traders said. It has dropped 9 percent in April and 20 percent this year. Venezuelan individuals and companies turn to the parallel market when they cant get government approval to buy dollars at the official rates of 2.6 and 4.3.

 

President Hugo Chavez vowed to drive the bolivar down to 4.3 in January as he sought to contain inflation after devaluing the currency by as much as 50 percent, saying he would burn the hands of speculators.

 

International reserves at the central bank have plunged 22 percent this year to $27.3 billion, limiting the banks ability to intervene in the currency market. The bank has transferred $5 billion to an off-budget development fund known as Fonden and is expected to transfer another $2 billion before July.

[BondWurzel]

Venezuela is not Greece

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/may/06/venezuela-greece-economic-crisis

 

There is one important fact that is almost never mentioned in news articles about Venezuela, because it does not fit in with the narrative of a country that has spent wildly throughout the boom years, and will soon, like Greece, face its day of reckoning. That is the government's debt level: currently about 20% of GDP. In other words, even as it was tripling real social spending per person, increasing access to healthcare and education, and loaning or giving billions of dollars to other Latin American countries, Venezuela was reducing its debt burden during the oil price run-up. Venezuela's public debt fell from 47.5% of GDP in 2003 to 13.8% in 2008. In 2009, as the economy shrank, public debt picked up to 19.9% of GDP. Even if we include the debt of the state oil company, PDVSA, Venezuela's public debt is 26% of GDP. The foreign part of this debt is less than half of the total.

 

Compare this to Greece, where public debt is 115% of GDP and currently projected to rise to 149% in 2013. (The European Union average is about 79%.)

[Prospektständer]

Schon ein bisschen älter, aber trotzdem interessant:

 

Chavez: US Oil Firms Pay $3 Billion A Year In Royalties To Venezuela

 

CARACAS -(Dow Jones)- U.S. oil firms pay about $3 billion a year in royalties to the Venezuelan government, a number that dwarfs the $200 million they'd be paying if previous Venezuelan administrations remained in charge, President Hugo Chavez said.

"They used to hand out the oil for free here," said Chavez during a speech Monday night that culminated Venezuela's Independence Day celebrations. "This has now ended and we are free."

The left-wing leader has been in power for 11 years and one of his key moves has been to take oil-drilling profits away from foreign oil companies and give more to the state for social, infrastructure and other projects.

Around 2005, Chavez ripped up contracts between the government and big oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), and re-wrote them to give state- owned Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, a majority stake.

 

Most companies, including California-based Chevron (CVX), the U.K.'s BP PLC ( BP), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA) and France's Total (TOT), reluctantly agreed to the changes.

Others such as Exxon and ConocoPhillips (COP) called Chavez' changes illegal, left the country and continue to pursue their cases in international courts.

Chavez called the previous Venezuela administrations and their supporters " mini-Yankees" that essentially worked for U.S. corporate interests and did nothing for the Venezuela people. He said Venezuela only charged foreign oil companies a 1% royalty rate before he arrived in 1999.

 

The Chavez government has steadily increased that royalty rate, bumping it up to 16% in 2004, and bringing it to as high as 33%.

 

But such high rates have caused many companies to reduce their involvement in Venezuela or forego new investments. Overall oil production - sales of which are the country's main revenue source - has dropped to 3.0 million barrels a day from about 3.4 million barrels a day a decade ago.

In the Carabobo heavy oil auction in February for drilling rights in the Orinoco region, the government was forced to reduce royalty rates to as low as 20% because foreign firms showed little interest in paying more.

Chavez comments late Monday also came at the start of a conference in Caracas of the left-leaning regional trade group Alba, which includes countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and others.

 

Fellow Alba members were told by Chavez that Venezuela feels a historical obligation to share its oil wealth with brother nations.

[BondWurzel]

 

Im Vergleich anderen Staaten, nur eine sehr niedrige Verschuldung, leider 30% Inflation aktuell

[BondWurzel]

Im Watschelgang, vielleicht mal wieder einen Blick auf die Vene25 in US-$.

[BondWurzel]

Venezuelan to emerge from recession in Q4

Tuesday, 13 Jul 2010

 

Bloomberg quoted Mr Armando Leon, a central bank director, as saying that Venezuela's economy will emerge from a recession in the last 3 months of 2010 as the government ramps up spending, construction increases and electricity rationing ends.

 

Mr Leon told reporters that gross domestic product, which fell 5.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, should end the year little changed. He added that "It appears as if we'll be emerging from the recession in the fourth quarter. The second half will be much better than the first."

 

Venezuela, the largest oil producer in South America, entered a recession last year after cutting crude output in line with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' production quotas, reducing export revenue. President Mr Hugo Chavez's nationalizations in the energy, food, metals and cement industries have also dried up foreign investment. An energy shortage earlier this year forced the government to halt production lines at steel and aluminum plants.

 

Venezuela's economy is the only one in the region forecast to contract this year by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF forecasts GDP will shrink 2.6% in 2010.

 

Venezuelan imports plunged last year as the government attempted to save dollar reserves. This year, Mr Chavez closed the unregulated currency market and transferred control over bond trading to the central bank.

[BondWurzel]

Freunde für immer?????

 

Venezuela Pares China Debt With $20 Billion Oil Accord

By Daniel Cancel and Corina Rodriguez Pons - Aug 4, 2010

Venezuela, the largest oil producer in South America, is shipping 200,000 barrels a day of oil to China to repay $20 billion of debt borrowed from the Asian nation to finance power, agriculture and technology projects.

 

The OPEC member, planning to ramp up China shipments to 1 million barrels a day by 2012, is selling oil at market prices to repay the 10-year loan, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said yesterday in an interview in Caracas. Shipments to repay the cash represent half Venezuelas daily crude exports to China.

 

Were diversifying our export markets; our international policy is going in this direction, Ramirez, also President of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said at his office beneath paintings of Cubas Fidel Castro and Che Guevara. We dont cut prices in any of our international agreements.

 

Venezuela is tapping Asian nations that need crude to fuel growth in their fast-growing economies for cash. President Hugo Chavez is seeking funds to restructure the countrys economy to provide more jobs for the poor and address power shortages.

 

China agreed to lend the Latin American nation $20 billion in April to finance development projects in return for future oil supplies. PDVSA, the state oil company, and China National Petroleum Corp. also signed a separate $16.3 billion joint- venture agreement this year for a project that will pump 1 million barrels a day of oil for Asian refineries.

 

Chinese Demand

 

The International Energy Agency projects Chinas oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030 from 2006 levels. The nations oil use may average about 8.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2010, up 9.5 percent from a year earlier, CNPCs research unit said this week.

 

Ramirez, whose office is also adorned with a statue of South American liberation hero Simon Bolivar, said Venezuela operates two very large crude carriers with China and will start construction on a joint refinery at the end of this year in the Asian country. Venezuela is diversifying its export markets as Chavez distances himself from the U.S., the countrys largest trading partner.

 

Venezuela sent an average 1.01 million barrels of crude a day to the U.S. in May, down from a peak of 1.55 million barrels a day in 1998, a year before Chavez took office, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

 

Shipments to China are increasing, independent of what the U.S. does. Ramirez said.

 

Growing Trade

 

Venezuela tapped the first $5 billion of the $20 billion credit line with China, which consists of $10 billion in U.S. currency and $10 billion in Chinese yuan, PDVSA said in a statement on July 29. Morgan Stanley, in an Aug. 2 report, said exports to Asia may not be made at market prices, but rather at a discount.

 

President Hugo Chavez said in April that the credit line is the largest that China Development Bank Corp. has extended to any country. Trade between China and Venezuela surged to $8.9 billion in 2008 from $85.5 million in 1999, according to Venezuelan state bank Bancoex.

 

Venezuela, which has forged close ties with Iran, isnt currently supplying the Persian country with gasoline amid fresh economic sanctions from Europe and the U.S., which Ramirez called savage and pre-war measures.

 

The shipments of energy to Iran havent been frequent, he said. Several occasional deliveries were made before the sanctions. At this moment we havent programmed any shipments, but it has nothing to do with the sanctions.

 

BP Assets

 

Ramirez, 47, said that the government hasnt received a formal request from BP Plc to sell its Venezuelan assets as part of a global divestment plan to raise as much as $30 billion for cleanup efforts in the Gulf of Mexico after the Macondo well oilspill.

 

PDVSA, which finances Chavezs social programs including adult education courses, food distribution units and other non- oil activities, saw its profit fall 53 percent to $4.4 billion in 2009 due to cuts in production at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a slump in prices.

 

Ramirez, who helped counter a two-month oil strike intended to oust Chavez from power in 2003, is also a leading member of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Elevators at the Oil Ministry say moving towards Bolivarian socialism in electronic lettering next to the floor number.

 

Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, will maintain current crude production of 3.01 million barrels a day this year and doesnt expect an output increase for the Vienna-based group of 12 petroleum exporting countries, Ramirez said. The country plans to boost production to 4 million barrels a day in 2015, he said.

 

Crude oil, which has averaged $78.27 a barrel this year, should rise further to within a price band of $80 a barrel to $100 a barrel, he said in the interview.

 

Were satisfied because the tendency is for oil to get closer to a fair price, Ramirez, wearing a dark blue suit and glasses, said. Were preparing our production capacity to be ready for when OPEC decides to increase our quotas.

[BondWurzel]

Venezuela Said to Sell $3 Billion of Bonds in First Offering in 10 Months

By Daniel Cancel - Aug 6, 2010

 

Venezuela plans to sell $3 billion of bonds in the local market next week after its benchmark dollar borrowing costs fell to the lowest in almost three months, according to a Finance Ministry official.

 

Investors will be able to buy the dollar-denominated bonds due in 2022 with bolivars, said the official, who declined to be identified because he isnt authorized to speak publicly. The governments average dollar bond yield has plunged 318 basis points, or 3.18 percentage points, to 13.03 percent from a one- year high of 16.21 percent on June 8, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.

 

President Hugo Chavez last sold dollar bonds in the local market in October, when his administration issued $5 billion of securities as part of an effort to bolster the supply of dollar- based assets in the economy and shore up the bolivar.

 

The only thing that I can say is that financial conditions are good for a sale, Armando Leon, a central bank board director, said in an interview today in Caracas. Because the Finance Ministry has been paying down debt since last year, theres space to sell debt in foreign currency or in bolivars.

 

Leon declined to comment on any specific sale plans.

 

Concern the sale will create a bond supply glut sparked a rout in Venezuelan dollar debt today, stemming the two-month rally. Yields on the governments benchmark 9.25 percent bonds maturing in 2027 jumped 37 basis points, the most in a month, to 13.18 percent at 3:50 p.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bonds price sank 2 cents on the dollar to 73.8 cents.

 

Bad Experiences

 

Investors worry that Venezuela will flood the market with debt after it boosted Octobers sale 60 percent from an initial $3 billion and after state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA increased its offering in 2007 to $7.5 billion, according to Alejandro Grisanti, an economist at Barclays Plc in New York.

 

While the government issues the bonds in the local market, Venezuelans re-sell the securities overseas, swelling the amount of debt owned by foreigners, to obtain dollars and circumvent Chavezs currency controls.

 

Theres always fear of new supply in Venezuela because of bad experiences in the past, Grisanti said. The net supply will be digestible as investors understand that what is coming down the pipeline is relatively small.

 

The government is scheduled to pay $1.5 billion on bonds maturing tomorrow, meaning next weeks offering will result in a net sale of $1.5 billion, Grisanti said.