"BOND CRASH IMMINENT T-30 DAYS"

[Gast Leonardo 322]

aus US-Forum

WINTER SAID BOND CRASH IMMINENT T-30 DAYS

 

Waterfall bond crash similar to 1931. Winter says in the podcast its coming in the 2nd week of May, basically right after the "stimulus" checks are mailed out. Russ said point blank that he sees a 30-40% crash in bond prices coming within a month. He also said it could happen any day. This has to do with a lot of the stuff KD has been talking about for some time with hiding the fictitious capital in off-balance sheet vehicles, swapping treasuries for dubious collateral, as well as the hyperinflation crack-up boom and Fed Central Bank massive printing and buying of Treasuries and GSE's. This pattern follows the Great Depression collapse exactly. An initial equities crack (August) followed by a panic flight INTO Treasuries, followed by a complete Treasury collapse by 1931.

 

Lee Adler and Aaron Krowne backed him up on this and agreed that a bond collapse is imminent.

 

http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/?url=http:....

 

...und wenn dann diese Herrschaften mit Notverkäufen anfangen, geht die Party richtig los.

 

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

(in billions of dollars)

HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD

 

 

New 5/ Old 5/

Series Series

Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan

Country 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007

------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

 

Japan 586.9 581.2 590.9 601.7 591.9 595.8 620.6 622.9 612.9 615.0 614.6 611.4 616.4 627.2

China, Mainland 492.6 477.6 458.9 459.1 467.7 471.2 480.0 477.3 405.2 407.5 414.2 420.0 416.0 401.0

United Kingdom 2/ 160.0 157.4 173.3 153.2 122.7 100.7 67.3 49.8 192.1 169.5 135.4 147.9 121.6 104.0

Brazil 141.7 129.9 121.7 113.9 110.5 107.7 105.8 94.8 93.7 81.6 79.7 69.7 60.7 53.7

Oil Exporters 3/ 140.9 137.9 138.7 141.6 137.1 134.7 134.7 133.2 122.1 121.1 112.0 112.5 110.5 111.7

Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/ 108.1 116.4 107.4 105.6 99.1 103.8 70.7 78.2 42.8 47.2 75.6 79.9 65.6 68.0

Luxembourg 68.4 69.7 68.3 63.3 58.4 57.1 57.6 55.9 62.6 62.2 61.8 61.8 59.8 59.4

Hong Kong 54.5 51.1 51.7 51.2 52.5 53.2 55.9 57.3 60.5 58.6 56.3 58.5 57.3 54.6

Germany 42.9 41.7 39.1 41.8 41.8 42.3 41.7 45.9 48.3 51.4 49.8 47.6 47.9 49.8

Korea 42.1 39.2 37.8 37.0 39.4 42.6 44.4 43.7 50.0 52.1 54.1 57.9 56.9 62.3

Switzerland 39.3 38.9 38.1 37.8 37.0 37.4 37.2 38.3 32.2 31.9 32.3 32.9 32.7 33.7

Taiwan 38.9 38.2 37.1 40.7 39.9 39.5 44.6 44.7 57.5 57.4 59.2 58.1 57.5 59.3

Singapore 38.4 39.8 40.1 38.8 36.6 37.8 36.3 36.0 33.0 34.4 32.1 28.8 31.2 29.9

Mexico 35.5 34.4 32.0 30.5 30.0 30.2 34.9 33.9 36.6 35.5 35.5 35.3 35.0 36.6

Russia 35.2 32.7 33.5 33.6 31.8 31.9 35.9 33.5 14.7 11.8 7.7 7.4 8.1 8.5

Norway 33.6 26.2 27.6 25.5 22.9 6.4 -- 3.1 -- -- 2.1 7.3 12.5 20.7

Thailand 28.9 27.4 27.5 22.8 24.7 22.9 22.5 20.6 17.8 18.7 16.8 17.8 16.8 16.6

Turkey 28.2 25.6 25.6 28.1 28.3 29.2 28.5 28.7 27.1 27.0 26.2 27.6 25.4 25.0

Canada 23.6 18.1 23.4 15.7 17.4 19.0 23.3 24.6 30.5 33.6 29.8 31.5 30.1 28.4

Netherlands 15.9 15.2 14.2 14.8 15.1 16.6 15.7 16.5 21.2 20.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.1

Ireland 15.4 18.7 17.5 17.0 16.3 16.8 15.6 15.8 12.0 12.0 8.5 11.7 12.5 12.3

India 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.9 10.8 12.1 14.1 14.0 12.8 15.3 20.0 20.1 19.5 15.8

Sweden 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.7 15.5 15.1 15.7 15.4 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.0

Belgium 13.1 13.2 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.4 15.2 11.9 12.1 12.9 12.3 12.9 12.3

Italy 12.7 14.6 15.5 14.1 13.4 13.2 13.9 14.0 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.9 13.4 13.6

Egypt 11.7 10.4 10.6 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.4 5.9

Philippines 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.6 9.0 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.3

Poland 10.3 12.9 11.1 9.8 10.6 10.5 11.1 10.4 12.9 11.8 12.2 12.2 12.7 12.5

All Other 145.2 146.0 142.5 136.4 134.7 137.8 139.2 149.4 137.5 154.3 154.8 160.9 161.3 156.5

Grand Total 2402.5 2353.3 2336.8 2297.6 2238.7 2219.2 2201.0 2191.9 2191.5 2185.0 2166.7 2194.8 2143.3 2120.6

 

Of which:

For. Official 1685.9 1641.1 1619.1 1613.8 1607.5 1594.9 1620.8 1612.4 1442.9 1448.2 1458.2 1465.8 1451.3 1448.7

Treasury Bills 205.0 196.3 185.3 180.4 178.1 179.8 176.0 160.7 160.7 172.5 178.0 194.9 181.8 181.4

T-Bonds & Notes 1480.9 1444.8 1433.8 1433.4 1429.4 1415.1 1444.7 1451.7 1282.1 1275.7 1280.3 1270.9 1269.5 1267.3

 

Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board

March 17, 2008

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

 

Keiner hier wird T-Bonds halten. Dennoch sollte man auf 'steigende Volatilität' in den Märkten einstellen...

[steff123]

Bevor ich mir das durchlese. Wer zum Teufel ist WINTER? Muss man den kennen und ernst nehmen?

[Gast Leonardo 322]

Ist ein amerikanischer "Finanzexperte" mit kostenpflichtigem Börsenbrief.

Das Besondere ist vielleicht, daß er bearish ist - was ja nicht das Übliche ist in dem Metier.

[Delphin]

Na, dann kriegen wir endlich mal wieder ordentliche Renditen

 

Aber Scherz beiseite, wenn du meinst, dass das von Bedeutung ist, dann erklär doch mal, was der Typ (wer überhaupt?) meint.

[Gast Leonardo 322]

Da ich Hn. Winter nichts überweise, habe ich keinen Zugang zu seiner Bezahl-Seite, und weiss deshalb nicht, was ihn gerade zu diesem Zeitpunkt zu seiner Warnung veranlaßt.

 

Grundsätzlich ist aber nachvollziehbar, daß

1) niedrigste Rendite seit Jahrzehnten bei langjährigen US-Bonds

2) Wechselkursverluste ausländischer Anleger in US-Bonds durch schwächelnden Dollar

3) Inflation in den Anlegerländern

 

die Anlage in US-Langläufern zu einem sehr schlechten Geschäft machen, bei dem man schwer draufzahlt.

Warum also weiterhalten? Da fallen mir als Argument nur politische Absprachen ein.

 

Hier jemand, der's besser als ich erklären kann:

 

Right now foreign countries such as China and Japan that have an interest in keeping thier currency somewhat pegged to the dollar are the receptors of exporting our inflation. i.e. a shirt made in China isn't any more expensive here, but China is expieriencing 10-12% inflation as a result.

 

They maintain this relationship by buying our debt, long treasury bonds. China holds a massive amount, something like 2.4 trillion of our debt.

 

The thinking here is that long bond yields are at generational lows.. 3.4% on the 10 year is as low as it's ever been going back to 1960.

 

At 11% inflation in China.. they are losing 7.6% right now a year to hold that debt as the return is only 3.4%.

 

Eventually this will cause what Nothing/Karen likes to call a "NO MAS" moment. Or NO MORE!!.. a point in which the loss of return on the debt and exported inflation to thier economy is a greater threat than simply selling off the bonds and letting their currency float up faster. Which of course would cause anything made in China to be much more expensive here. Walmart for example would be pounded. This would hurt the Chinese economy obviously.. but as some point just like our FED.. they have to weigh the threat of massive inflation with threat of economic recession.

 

It's definitely arguable right now.. that somebody like China is reaching the point of NO MAS. Where a slowdown in their economy and reduction of inflation may not be such a bad thing.

 

If one country decides to start dumping our debt, it would likely cause a domino effect and long bonds would be sold off very rapidly causing a major explosion of foreign capital flight.

 

This would crash bond prices, yields would shoot up.. shattering whats left of our housing market as mortgage rates climb to 10%+.

 

The further the dollar falls... the further bond yields fall.. and the more inflation rises in places like China.. the greater and greater the chance of the NO MAS moment actually happening.

 

I think playing Put options on long bonds is a good idea here because the yield is already so low (lowest in 50 years).. and the risk of a bond price crash is so high.. that the risk reward is very compelling.

 

Und hier eine etwas abweichende Meinung:

If gov't bonds crash, everyone loses. Look up Pyrrhic Victory. Have you guys ever thought through what you plan to store your newfound "wealth" in in the event of a currency crash!?!?

 

You have to hope that this game keeps going until you can get a huge HR and then get it ALL out either to physical notes or gold or gasoline or cigarettes or something else with real value.

 

China CANNOT dump Treasuries. To do so, they have to move the balances to other currencies, and the ECB will NOT sell the the euros to do that. The best China can do is to no longer accumulate and to try to swap their holdings for oil and pass this toxic crap off to someone else.

 

China is reputed to have already threatened Treasury with a dump and apparently it took only a couple of phone calls before the ECB said that they would not sell China euros to transfer their assets into and the Gulf states said that they would not sell China the oil either.

 

The petrodollar racket is MUCH larger than China. Dumping massive amounts of sovereign debt is a questionable proposition; what do you sell them FOR? Most people haven't even thought this through; there is no THING of value backing any paper asset anymore, especially fiat currencies. So, you're going to sell $1T of USTs to the europeans? You'd end up with a ton of euros, causing a huge spike in that currency which would DEFLATE a currency zone already struggling with high debt/GDP. Does this sound like something the ECB would agree to? ANY asset-backed currency, such as the CAD or the ZAR, also, you'd be talking about a massive strengthening and deflation for that currency. There is no nation that's going to agree to take China's $1T problem off their hands.

 

The only other alternative is to swap them for things such as oil...this too is problematic. There simply isn't $1T worth of oil sitting anywhere. The entire world uses around $8B worth per day. You'd need to buy half a year's world oil supply with this pile.

 

This is the problem that the Chinese were too arrogant to come to terms with. They accepted these debt dollars in exchange for real goods and they did so in order to grow their own economy. Now, they HONESTLY expect to be paid back in full face value? They think they can just opt-out now that their economy has other significant export customers? Chinese behavior suggests that their men in charge are doddering old fools. If they cannot grasp the reality of the dollar as reserve currency, then how should one expect the allocation of their own economy to be?

 

The BW2 "accord" was a confidence racket, plain and simple. The world got off of gold then and we backed all currencies with ours. Then, we began printing and borrowing. And our currency didn't collapse...so we kept doing it. And, everybody else was so busy implementing Raygunomics and the orgy of growth it brought that they thought it was a great idea.

 

So, at this point, why doesn't the Fed and the BOJ just forgive all debts owed to them? That would prevent any deflation. All the credit extended would now be "printed" and we could move on without the pretense of real accounting.

 

beide gefunden in: http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker

[Boersifant]

Na jedenfalls ist das eine konkrete Prognose, die sich in spätestens 30 Tagen als wahr oder falsch herausstellt. Ich bin mir sehr sicher, dass es letzteres sein wird.

[steff123]

Da ich Hn. Winter nichts überweise, habe ich keinen Zugang zu seiner Bezahl-Seite, und weiss deshalb nicht, was ihn gerade zu diesem Zeitpunkt zu seiner Warnung veranlaßt.

 

Grundsätzlich ist aber nachvollziehbar, daß

1) niedrigste Rendite seit Jahrzehnten bei langjährigen US-Bonds

2) Wechselkursverluste ausländischer Anleger in US-Bonds durch schwächelnden Dollar

3) Inflation in den Anlegerländern

 

die Anlage in US-Langläufern zu einem sehr schlechten Geschäft machen, bei dem man schwer draufzahlt.

Warum also weiterhalten? Da fallen mir als Argument nur politische Absprachen ein.

 

 

Das Problem mit der US-Auslandsverschuldung ist ein alter Hut. Aber warum soll es nun gerade innerhalb der nächsten 30 Tage zu einem Sellout kommen?

 

Steht eigentlich irgendwo ob er Langläufer oder Kurzläufer meint? Wenn er die die 30 jährigen meint, würde dies eine Renditeerhöhung (pi mal daumen) von 100 bis 200 bp bedeutet. Nichts was mich persönlich vom Hocker hauen würde, bei den Inflationsrisiken.

[Raccoon]

Two-Year Notes Fall Most Since '07 as Bernanke Aids Confidence